A Big Error in the Senate Republicans’ Balanced Budget Amendment

Senate Republicans made a striking error in the balanced budget amendment they introduced last week. As written, the amendment would limit federal spending far more than those senators realize or, I suspect, desire.

The Republicans want the budget to be balanced by keeping spending down rather than by raising tax revenues. They thus propose limiting spending to no more than 18% of gross domestic product (GDP). That’s in line with average tax revenues over the past four decades, but well below average spending, which has been just short of 21% of GDP.

So what’s the problem? The way the amendment would implement the spending limit:

Total outlays for any fiscal year shall not exceed 18 percent of the gross domestic product of the United States for the calendar year ending before the beginning of such fiscal year, unless two-thirds of the duly chosen and sworn Members of each House of Congress shall provide by law for a specific amount in excess of such 18 percent by a roll call vote.

The amendment compares spending in one period (the upcoming fiscal year) to the size of the economy in an earlier period (the last complete calendar year). If the amendment were in force today, for example, spending in fiscal 2012, which starts in October, would be limited to 18 percent of GDP in calendar 2010. That’s a gap of 21 months.

As Bruce Bartlett pointed out in analyzing an earlier version of this amendment, that time lag can add up to big money. Why? Because both real economic growth and inflation will expand the economy during those 21 months.

The Congressional Budget Office projects, for example, that nominal GDP will grow about 4.5% annually in the latter part of this decade (the earliest the amendment could go into effect). Over 21 months, that works out to roughly 8% growth. The amendment would thus limit federal spending in those years to about 16.7% of each year’s GDP (16.7% = 18% / 1.08) not the advertised 18%. In 2020 alone that amounts to a difference of more than $300 billion in spending.

That’s a big error.

I doubt that Senate Republicans really want to limit spending to only 18% of GDP. Even the House Republican budget calls for spending of more than 20% of GDP for at least two decades. But if the Senate Republicans are serious, their first step should be to fix the drafting error in their amendment.

9 thoughts on “A Big Error in the Senate Republicans’ Balanced Budget Amendment”

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  2. The error belongs to Mr. Marron. There is no 21 month gap. The gap – between the end of a calendar year and the start of the next fiscal year – is 9 months, from Jan through Sep.

  3. The author fails to understand that the more government spends, the less the rest of us can spend. The Republicans have it right (for a change)! We are Taxed Enough Already; too much, in fact. Limiting spending by the government simply gives the private sector more opportunity to grow the economy. Historically, our increase in wealth has all come from the private sector. All significant inventions have come from the private sector. The quality of life enjoyed by all Americans has come from the private sector. Then the government steps in, makes rules, and tries to take control. THAT causes problems like the ones we face today.

  4. Is there a way that we can get ahold of a spreadsheet so we can see what is going on and what was proposed?
    >There is no 21 month gap.

    He’s comparing the calender year of 2010, ending in December to the beginning of the fiscal year (October) in 2012, so that’s 12 months for 2011 and the first 9 months of 2012, therefore 12+9=21.

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