Journalists, commentators, and economists often say that consumer spending makes up 70% of the U.S. economy. Indeed, it’s easy to find several examples of that claim in today’s coverage of the latest GDP data (e.g., here). And, full confession, I’ve used that phrase a few times myself. There’s just one problem with the 70% claim: it’s [...]
Posts Tagged ‘GDP’
Consumer Spending is Not 70% of the Economy
Posted in Data, Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged Consumers, Data, Economy, GDP, Macroeconomics on May 27, 2010 | 10 Comments »
Consumers Boosted GDP in Q1
Posted in Data, Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged Economy, GDP, Macroeconomics on April 30, 2010 | Leave a Comment »
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first look at Q1 GDP growth this morning. BEA estimates that GDP grew at a solid 3.2% annual pace in the first quarter. That’s slower than the 5.6% pace of the previous quarter, but is otherwise the strongest showing since the third quarter of 2007. The following chart [...]
Inventories Still the Growth Story in Q4
Posted in Data, Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged Data, GDP, Macroeconomics on March 26, 2010 | 4 Comments »
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has released its third look at the economy in the fourth quarter of 2009. The economy grew rapidly in the quarter, but slightly less than previously reported: the new estimate is a 5.6% pace of real GDP growth vs. 5.9% in the prior estimate. As usual, I think the best [...]
The Legacy of the Economic Crisis
Posted in International, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized, tagged GDP, International, Macroeconomics, unemployment on March 14, 2010 | 4 Comments »
In its recent Going for Growth report, the OECD concludes that the economic and financial crisis will leave an unwelcome legacy: a permanent reduction in economic activity. This loss averages about 3% of potential GDP across the 20 member countries for which the OECD was able to make these estimates. As the following chart shows, those [...]
Living Standards, Labor, and Productivity
Posted in International, Macroeconomics, tagged GDP, International, Macroeconomics on March 13, 2010 | Leave a Comment »
This week the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released its annual Going for Growth report. The purpose of G4G is to benchmark economic performance among the OECD member countries and suggest pro-growth policy reforms. My favorite chart in the report examines how GDP per capita differs so much across countries: The first column of [...]
The Key Driver of Q4 Growth? Inventories
Posted in Data, Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged GDP, Macroeconomics on February 26, 2010 | 4 Comments »
The economy grew briskly last quarter. According to the second estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, gross domestic product increased at a 5.9% annual pace in the fourth quarter of 2009, a bit higher than BEA’s first 5.7% estimate. As usual, I think the best way to understand this report is to see what sectors [...]
Inventories Boosted Growth in Q4 2009
Posted in Data, Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged GDP, Macroeconomics on January 29, 2010 | 4 Comments »
The economy grew briskly last quarter. According to the advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, gross domestic product increased at a 5.7% pace in the fourth quarter of 2009, faster than many forecasters had expected. (Note: BEA will revise this figure next month and the month after that. Oh, and then BEA will revise [...]
Will Rising Government Debt Hurt Growth?
Posted in Budget, Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged Budget, Debt, GDP, Macroeconomics on January 7, 2010 | 3 Comments »
Every January America’s economists gather for their annual conference. There are far more papers than one could ever read (or want to read), so you need a strategy to choose the most important. In recent years, your optimal strategy should have included the papers by Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff (see, e.g., this prescient paper [...]
What’s the United States Worth? $1.4 Quadrillion
Posted in Finance, Macroeconomics, tagged Debt, Finance, GDP on January 4, 2010 | 4 Comments »
Happy 2010, everyone. To kick off the new year, I am in Atlanta at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. As Paul Kedrosky notes, there are lots of sessions on the financial crisis and its aftermath. Perhaps not surprisingly, many presentations have a pessimistic tone. But there are pockets of optimism, including Robert [...]
Q3 Growth Revised Down Again, Now 2.2%
Posted in Economy, tagged GDP, Macroeconomics on December 22, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
Q3 keeps looking weaker. The original estimate of Q3 GDP growth came in at a healthy 3.5% annual pace. The second estimate was a respectable 2.8%. And this morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its third estimate: an underwhelming 2.2%. Growth of 2.2% is, of course, much better than the sharp declines in the [...]
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