Yesterday’s report on residential construction provided more evidence that step one of a housing bottom is underway — and that step two may be beginning.
Total housing starts fell slightly in July because of weakness in multi-family. But starts of single-family homes increased to 490 thousand (at an annual rate), the fifth straight monthly increase and the highest level since last October.
As the chart shows, this rebound is off of extremely low levels, so we shouldn’t get too excited. But it does appear that single-family starts bottomed last January and February (at 357 thousand).
That’s the first step of a housing bottom.
As I’ve noted in previous posts, however, that isn’t enough to declare a bottom in housing activity. Housing activity depends on the number of houses under construction, which depends on both housing starts and housing completions. Completions have exceeded starts for more than three years. As a result, the number of houses under construction has fallen for 41 straight months.
For me, the big news in the July data is that this decline may be ending.
Single-family starts were essentially equal to completions in July (completions were 491 thousand, just a smidgen more than starts). In other words, the wide gap between completions and starts largely disappeared in July:
As a result, the number of houses under construction was essentially flat in July:
If construction activity does indeed level off, or even rebound slightly, in coming months, that will be the second step of the housing bottom. (The third step — a bottom in house prices — is a topic for another day.)
So we should start adding construction jobs soon?
I’d put it more narrowly at this point: if housing construction levels off, the number of jobs in residential construction should level off as well.
I remain concerned that the “first time home owner” incentive, must be having some effect. We know the “cash for clunkers” program is affecting that market, I would assume the home buying incentive may have a similar effect.
In either case, demand may weaken when the incentive plans expire. I would not be surprised at a double bottom in the car and home markets.
Thanks Bill. I think this is an important point. (Indeed, I just used the cash for clunkers analogy in an email to another reader who posed the same question.) But I don’t have a sense of the magnitude in the new housing market.
As you say, the home buying incentive should have been boosting new home starts in recent months. That should tail off soon, though, because of the time necessary to put a new house in service and thereby quality for the credit (by December 1).
We will get another perspective on this question by the behavior of completions in October and November. If the credit matters, we should see a spike in completions in those months, followed by a drop off in December. (Assuming no changes to the law.)
Don,
According to these folks, June saw a slight increase in home prices:
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/08/20/house-prices-gain-3-in-june-radar-logic/
Maybe this is an initial sign that the third step – a bottom in prices – might be on deck.
Thanks David. The Radar Logic data are interesting. I too a quick look at the underlying data release (http://www.radarlogic.com/research/RPXMonthlyHousingMarketReportforJune2009.pdf) and it appears that their measure captures changes in the housing mix. So part of the increase is just that higher-prices homes are trading more than they did in previous months. Which is also good sign.