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Posts Tagged ‘Recession’

Another Observation on the Yield Curve

Posted in Finance, Microeconomics, tagged , , , on August 29, 2010 | 1 Comment »

As a follow-up to my recent post about recessions and the yield curve, reader Joan F. points us to a piece by the FT’s James Mackintosh. The money quote: [T]hose keeping faith in recovery also point to the fact that the yield curve has not inverted – 10-year bonds still yield 2 percentage points more [...]

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The Yield Spread and the Odds of Recession

Posted in Finance, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized, tagged , , , on August 26, 2010 | 3 Comments »

Worries about a double-dip recession have spawned much economic commentary … and a humorous country and western song. So how likely is a return to recession? Researchers at the San Francisco Fed took a crack at this question a few weeks ago. Their answer? It depends. When they used a traditional model based on the [...]

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We’re Still #1 (Unfortunately)

Posted in Economy, Health, Macroeconomics, tagged , , , on August 2, 2010 | 2 Comments »

The Bureau of Economic Analysis rewrote history on Friday. Along with GDP data for the second quarter, BEA also published revisions to its GDP estimates since the start of 2007. Bottom line: The recession was worse than originally thought. The economy contracted by 4.1% from peak to trough (Q2 2008 to Q2 2009), up from [...]

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1.2 Million Fewer Households, More Overcrowding

Posted in Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged , on April 7, 2010 | 6 Comments »

During the initial years of the housing downturn, optimists sometimes offered the following argument: “Everyone has to live somewhere. If a family loses their home to foreclosure, they will become renters. Their new residence might be smaller and less desirable than their former home, but from the perspective of housing units it’s a wash: their [...]

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Manufacturing on the Upswing

Posted in Data, Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged , , , on October 16, 2009 | 1 Comment »

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve released its latest data on industrial production. Bottom line: production over the past three months has been surprisingly strong. Growth in September was more than expected, and the previous month was revised upward. Industrial production has now increased for three straight months, as has a slightly narrower measure, manufacturing production: [...]

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How Much Did Cash-for-Clunkers Boost Auto Sales?

Posted in Budget, Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged , , , , on September 10, 2009 | 10 Comments »

The busy folks at the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released a quartet of studies today, covering the economic impacts of: The stimulus act. The state assistance in the stimulus act. Stimulus efforts in other countries. The Cash-for-Clunkers program. I suspect that other bloggers (not to mention the regular media) will have lots to say [...]

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We’re #1 (Unfortunately)

Posted in Economy, History, Macroeconomics, tagged , , , on August 1, 2009 | 1 Comment »

Yesterday’s GDP report confirmed what many had already suspected: the current economic downturn is the worst since World War II. According to the advance estimate, GDP fell at a 1.0% annualized pace in the second quarter, somewhat better than consensus estimates (which were looking for a decline in the 1.5% range). Revisions to last year, [...]

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