At least according to the latest Kauffman survey of economics bloggers by Tim Kane. Here’s the word cloud of responses when the bloggers (including me) were asked for up to five adjectives to describe the U.S. economy in Q4 2011: Comparing this to the last survey in July, the good news is that “vulnerable” has gotten smaller. The [...]
Posts Tagged ‘Macroeconomics’
The U.S. Economy is Weak, Uncertain, and Fragile
Posted in Economy, Energy, tagged Economy, Macroeconomics on October 31, 2011 | 5 Comments »
Is Our Luck Running Out on Oil Supplies?
Posted in Economy, Energy, Macroeconomics, tagged Energy, Macroeconomics, Oil on October 23, 2011 | 4 Comments »
In an excellent new paper, Jim Hamilton asks whether the “phenomenal increase in global crude oil production over the last century and a half” reflects technological progress or good fortune in finding new reserves. The two aren’t completely distinct, of course. Better technology helps find more resources. But the heart of the question remains: have we been [...]
Why Did Sargent and Sims Win a Nobel Prize?
Posted in Macroeconomics, tagged Macroeconomics, Nobel on October 10, 2011 | Leave a Comment »
Because they developed methods to help distinguish between cause and effect in the macroeconomy. The Royal Swedish Academy of Science released a very readable account of their contributions here. Here’s the introduction: The economy is constantly affected by unanticipated events. The price of oil rises unexpectedly, the central bank sets an interest rate unforeseen by borrowers and [...]
Solow on Keynes and Uncertainty
Posted in History, Macroeconomics, tagged Keynes, Macroeconomics, Uncertainty on October 4, 2011 | 3 Comments »
Over at the New Republic, Bob Solow offers a thoughful review of Sylvia Nasar’s new book, Grand Pursuit: The Story of Genius. Along the way, Solow provides a characteristically clear explanation of what he views as John Maynard Keynes most important contribution: Back then [in the 1930s], serious thinking about the general state of the economy was [...]
Helicopter Ben Needs to Pick Up His Game
Posted in Macroeconomics, tagged Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy on September 18, 2011 | 3 Comments »
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is often characterized as a inflation-monger. There’s just one problem with that criticism. As David Leonhardt demonstrates in the New York Times, when it comes to inflation, Bernanke is a piker compared to most of his predecessors:Inflation has averaged just 2.3% under his leadership (as officially measured), less than under [...]
Unemployment, Small Business, Quantitative Easing, and More
Posted in Economy, International, Macroeconomics, tagged Federal Reserve, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Small Business, Sweden, unemployment on September 15, 2011 | 1 Comment »
The Fed’s quantitative easing programs did indeed lower interest rates, but more so for Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities than for other kinds of debt. Small businesses are overrated as job creators. Extended unemployment insurance does increase unemployment rates, but not that much. Those are just a few of the findings from papers presented today at [...]
A Synchronized Slowdown in Developed Economies
Posted in Economy, International, Macroeconomics, tagged GDP, International, Macroeconomics on August 17, 2011 | 1 Comment »
Which of the following nations recorded the strongest economic growth in the second quarter? France, Germany, Italy, Japan, or the United States? This nice chart from today’s Wall Street Journal provides the answer (click for larger version): The U.S. expanded at a tepid 1.3% annual pace in Q2, but that was still better than many other [...]
Another Record Low for Homes Under Construction
Posted in Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged Housing, Macroeconomics on August 16, 2011 | 2 Comments »
Today’s housing data showed that the number of single-family homes under construction hit another record low in July: Ten years ago, America’s home builders were in the midst of constructing 689,000 single-family homes. Five years ago, they were building 913,000 homes. Last year, they were building 278,000. And now that figure is down to a [...]
Better Than Feared, But Still Mediocre
Posted in Data, Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged Data, jobs, Macroeconomics, unemployment on August 5, 2011 | 4 Comments »
America’s job market has been down so long, today’s mediocre report looked like up. The headline figures — payrolls up 117,000, unemployment rate down a tic to 9.1% — were better than most forecasters anticipated. That’s a relief. And many details moved in the right direction as well. Revisions to May and June added another [...]
Economy is Worse Than We Knew; Uncertainty Still Reigns
Posted in Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged Economy, Macroeconomics on July 29, 2011 | 3 Comments »
Tim Kane at the Kauffman Foundation is out with his latest survey of economics bloggers (full disclosure: I am both an adviser to the survey and a participant in it). In light of today’s abysmal GDP report, the results for one question are particularly relevant: The latest revisions shows that GDP growth in recent quarters was much [...]
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