One of my first posts cautioned against comparing the current economic downturn to the Great Depression. Our economy is certainly in terrible shape, as Friday’s GDP data confirmed. Indeed, it’s the worst downturn since World War II. But it still pales in comparison to the horror of the Great Depression. Since we received fresh data on [...]
Posts Tagged ‘Great Depression’
Still Not the Great Depression 2.0
Posted in Economy, History, Macroeconomics, tagged GDP, Great Depression, Macroeconomics on August 2, 2009 | 10 Comments »
The Long U
Posted in Macroeconomics, tagged Great Depression, Macroeconomics on May 30, 2009 | 4 Comments »
Like many economists, I do not expect the U.S. economy to rebound briskly from its current troubles. The economy may well return to positive growth in the third or fourth quarter, as many forecasters anticipate, but that doesn’t mean that the suffering is over. In short, I don’t expect the recovery to be a V, with recent declines offset by a rapid recovery. Nor, for that matter, do I expect a Japan-like L, in which the economy flattens at its new low level. Instead, I expect a Long U, in which the economy heals slowly before eventually returning to solid growth.
A Plane Crash Averted?
Posted in Macroeconomics, tagged GDP, Great Depression, Macroeconomics on May 28, 2009 | 9 Comments »
The parallels between the lead-up to the Great Depression and the lead-up to today’s severe recession are eerie. Why do the economic costs today appear to be so much lower (knock on wood)?
Not the Great Depression 2.0
Posted in Macroeconomics, tagged GDP, Great Depression, Macroeconomics on May 27, 2009 | 43 Comments »
NEW UPDATE: For updated data and an even better discussion of the issues raised here, please start with this post from August 2, 2009. UPDATE: Please see two related posts: “The Long U” and “A Plane Crash Averted?” The Great Depression was an unspeakably bad time for the U.S. economy. I know that sounds obvious, [...]
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