As a follow-up to my recent post about recessions and the yield curve, reader Joan F. points us to a piece by the FT’s James Mackintosh. The money quote: [T]hose keeping faith in recovery also point to the fact that the yield curve has not inverted – 10-year bonds still yield 2 percentage points more [...]
Archive for August, 2010
Another Observation on the Yield Curve
Posted in Finance, Microeconomics, tagged Finance, Interest Rates, Macroeconomics, Recession on August 29, 2010 | 1 Comment »
Further Signs of a Slowdown
Posted in Data, Economy, Macroeconomics, tagged Data, Economy, GDP, Macroeconomics on August 27, 2010 | 2 Comments »
As expected, BEA’s second stab at GDP growth for the second quarter was even less inspiring than the first. Headline growth was a tepid 1.6%, down from the 2.4% previously reported. Consumer spending and business spending on equipment and software were actually stronger than earlier estimates, but business structures, inventories, and exports all weakened, while [...]
The Yield Spread and the Odds of Recession
Posted in Finance, Macroeconomics, Uncategorized, tagged Finance, Interest Rates, Macroeconomics, Recession on August 26, 2010 | 2 Comments »
Worries about a double-dip recession have spawned much economic commentary … and a humorous country and western song. So how likely is a return to recession? Researchers at the San Francisco Fed took a crack at this question a few weeks ago. Their answer? It depends. When they used a traditional model based on the [...]
Investors Should Be Prepared to Face Financial Oppression
Posted in Budget, Finance, International, tagged Bonds, Budget, Debt, Deficit, Finance on August 25, 2010 | 3 Comments »
That’s the conclusion of a new report by Morgan Stanley analyst Arnaud Mares. And what, you may ask, is financial oppression? Speaking from the perspective of investors in sovereign debt, Mares defines it as “imposing on creditors real rates of return that are negative or artificially low.” Which doesn’t require outright default. Instead, it [C]an [...]
A New Price Tag for Stimulus: $814 Billion
Posted in Budget, Macroeconomics, tagged Budget, CBO, Macroeconomics, Stimulus on August 24, 2010 | 1 Comment »
Last week the Congressional Budget Office released updated budget projections — a treasure trove of information for budget wonks. For example, CBO released new estimates of the direct budget costs of the 2009 stimulus bill, officially known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). CBO now estimates that ARRA will cost $814 billion from 2009 [...]
No, the Web Isn’t Dead (Yet)
Posted in Internet, Technology, tagged Internet, Technology on August 23, 2010 | 2 Comments »
Wired’s cover story this month, “The Web is Dead,” features the following chart showing the portion of internet traffic in different uses: Over the past few years, peer-to-peer services and video have gobbled up an increasing share of traffic, while the “traditional” web — you know, surfing from site to site, reading your favorite blog [...]
Double Dippin’
Posted in Macroeconomics, tagged Humor, Macroeconomics on August 22, 2010 | 7 Comments »
I am more than a week behind on this, but in case you missed it, Merle Hazard has a new ditty out called “Double Dippin’.” This comes with a warning: the opening scene may make you crave ice cream: Rising concern about a double dip makes sense given the weakness of recent macroeconomic data. On [...]
I Found What I Was Looking For …
Posted in Life, Nature, tagged Life, Nature on August 22, 2010 | 1 Comment »
Just back from eight days in southeast Alaska. I won’t torment you with too much of a travelogue (my wife and I have another blog for that; so far it covers the first day of the trip). But I will note that we did find puffins, glaciers, and humpback whales, as wished in my last [...]
It’s Back-to-School Season, Time to Lay Your Bets
Posted in Behavioral Economics, Finance, Microeconomics, tagged Adverse Selection, Insurance, Microeconomics, Moral Hazard, Teaching on August 10, 2010 | 1 Comment »
According to an article over at the Huffington Post (ht Natalie), students at 36 colleges will have a new option when they start classes this fall. Thanks to an outfit named Ultrinsic, students can now bet on whether they will get good grades. Students put up money at the start of the semester and then [...]
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