Comments on: Fewer Layoffs, Not Enough Hiring

By: Jobs Rebounding Faster at Large Employers

Jobs Rebounding Faster at Large Employers — Wed, 05 May 2010 22:11:49 +0000

[...] P.S. For an earlier discussion of the JOLTS data, see this post. [...]

By: Dan Brown

Dan Brown — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 17:06:15 +0000

I’ve sent over the last ten years to every Congressman, Senator, Governor, including the Obama administration the fix to this temporary state of financial disaster and have not received one response, we ( The USA ) are standing on the largest already tapped and capped reserve of natural gas in the world, convert all combustion engines in the US to LNG and start a mobile delivery service .with parts manufacturing conversions supply yards and spin off services we WILL employ well over fifteen million with good salaries overnight , use OUR tremendous commidity to pay off our national deficit with in a two year period, cut foreign oil import eighty percent in less than a year, cut carbon emissions seventy percent on every converted vehicle. Take what ALWAYS continues to work in any economic climate BIG OIL out of the equation and put it to work for the American economy, the business plan is simple and I offer my expertise and experience at NO expense to the American Tax Payer, PLEASE try to get this started by getting it to the Obama administration for immediate consideration, sincerely Dan Brown 717-557-1383

By: Donald Marron

Donald Marron — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:09:58 +0000

Thanks. I’ll have to take a look at the metric you suggest (number of persons unemployed less than four weeks as a percent of the workforce); that goes back much further in history.

By: The Secret Economist

The Secret Economist — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:37:36 +0000

Good post, Donald.

I have found, similar to your observation, that the best indicator of the health of the labor market is separations minus quits. This gives something closer to the more economically relevant involuntary separations.

Further, this series is also highly correlated with Shimer’s separations series which has the same dynamics as using the number person unemployed less than four weeks as a percent of the workforce from the household survey.

In the past, the latter two series have served as the best timely indicator of turning points in the business cycle. When separations turn sharply up, the recession is beginning. When they fall, the cycle is turning positive.

Good post. Keep up the good work.